The Seattle Condo Blog | Seattle Condos and Lofts

July was a challenging month for Seattle’s condo market with a downward pressure on prices despite improved sales.

The median citywide sales price of $255,000 reflected a 12.07% decline compared to last July, but increased 3.7% over June. While most neighborhoods saw double-digit decreases, the downtown / Belltown area fared the best with only a 0.7% dip, less than a percent. Median sale prices over the past few months have been in line with 2005 price levels.

Sales velocity improved from a year ago with the number of pending transactions up 23.1%. The downtown / Belltown area realized a significant increase in condo sales in July, nearly doubling the number of properties going under contract from last year (+48.7%). The results were diverse with sales coming from across a variety of price levels and condominium buildings.

Closed sales, on the other hand, fell 6.2% compared to last July. The month-over-month result was more significant with closings dipping 24.9%. The decrease may be attributable to the drop in pending transactions in June (the lag between pendings and closings) as well as short sale failures.

The number of active listings continued to hover around the 1,100 mark. That’s approximately 30% fewer available listings for sale compared to the same period last year. At this rate and contemplating seasonal factors, we may hit pre-construction boom inventory levels by Fall.

The Seattle condo inventory supply rate dipped slightly to 5.2 months based on pending transactions but rose to 7.9 months based on the closed sales method. Overall, the Seattle condo market reflects a neutral to buyer’s market environment, though some neighborhoods like Belltown exhibit neutral to seller’s market conditions.

__________________________
© Seattle Condos And Lofts

Seattle’s soft condo prices contributed to strong condo sales activity in June.

The $246,000 citywide median condo sales price in June reflected a 13.68% year-over-year drop and a slight one-month decline of 1.5%. Prices slid in all Seattle MLS areas except for West Seattle, which improved 15.7%. The attractive, lower prices continued to stimulate sales of entry-level condominiums. In June, 50.8% of all condos sold in Seattle were priced below $250,000 compared to 37.9% last year. The higher number of lower price condos sales, along with depressed values, shifted the median sales price point downward compared to the same period last year.

Overall, June’s condo sales volume was healthy with a 31.1% year-over-year increase in the number of pending transactions (condos going under contract). Though, anything compared to the stalled sales following the expiration of the tax credit last year would look good. The number of pending transactions also reflected a one-month dip of 9.8%. Nevertheless, it was one of the better months for condo sales over the past 13-months.

The number of closed condo sales continued to trend upward with a one-month increase of 2.8%. Compared to a year ago, closings were down 14.2%. However, the closing deadline for the tax credit was last June, which resulted in a higher than normal closing volume. Thus, the 30 unit difference was remarkable given there were no incentives to propel sales this year…the market drove sales on its own.

The number of active condo listings continued to remain flat this year, and was down 27.9% compared to June of last year. For many condo owners, the hot rental market offers a compelling alternative to selling at depressed prices.

Seattle’s condo inventory supply rate was moderate in June, indicating a relatively normal market environment. While the lower supply tend to benefit sellers, the lower values definitely favor buyers in this market. Anecdotally, our first-time home buyers are starting to find the number of choices scarce, particularly in the lower price ranges, and lately, are experiencing competition from other buyers.

© Seattle Condos and Loft

At first look, the Seattle condo market results for March 2011 don’t look all that promising, especially when viewing the charts below. The market, though, performed quite well overall.

The most notable figure was the median Seattle condo sales price, which decreased 7.9% from a year ago to $268,000. That’s also a 14.3% drop from February. The median sales price is the mid-point price of the condos that sold and not necessarily indicative of value trends. In March, a higher number of lower priced condo sales weighted the mid-point downward. Nevertheless, values continued to decline.

Falling condo values, though, have been having a positive impact on the market place. We’re seeing a greater number of buyers across the spectrum from first-time buyers to investors to the luxury home buyer. Compared to March 2010, unit sales of condos priced under $250,000 were up 19.3% while sales of condos over $1 million increased a staggering 233%.

Last month there were 147 closed sales and 233 properties that went under contract. Compared to the same period last year, those figures were down 17% and 12.7%, respectively. It is important to note, the tax credit inflated sales last year so we fully expected year-over-year figures to be lower. If we just left it there it would seem Seattle condo sales did poorly last month. But, it didn’t…in fact, it was rather exceptional considering. Closed unit sales reflected a one-month increase of 33.6% while pending transactions rose 41.2%. In March 2011, we had the most monthly closed sales since June 2010 and the highest number of pending transactions in 11 months. Condo unit sales are rebounding without governmental incentives.

Seattle’s condo inventory has been holding relatively steady over the past four months. Normally, we would see a rise in inventory this time of year, but the 1,084 condos for sale in March reflected a decline of 1.4% from February and 24.8% from last March. Though, I expect inventory to rise going forward.

The higher unit sales volume and stable inventory have reduced the inventory supply rate considerably. Based on pending transactions the supply rate was 4.7 months and based on closed sales it was 7.4 months. Both figures indicate a shift towards normal market conditions. The supply rate is prone to fluctuations, however, so I wouldn’t say we’re back to a normalized market environment just yet.

In short, the median condo sales priced dropped last month, a combination of falling values and more sales of lower-priced condos that migrated the mid-point downwards. Buyers reacted positively to those falling prices, and along with low interest rates, returned to the market place seeing value in condos. Excluding the three artificial bumps (tax credits in 2008/2009/2010), March’s unit sales volume was among the better performing months over the past three years.

Without any new deliverable units (new construction) for at least 24-36 months, Seattle’s once endless glut of inventory will continue to reduce, which over time will allow values to stabilize and appreciate. However, we’re not there yet, and if you’re a buyer, that can be a good thing.

First Quarter Results
During the first quarter of 2011, 378 condos in Seattle sold with a total dollar volume of $148,751,000 and a median sales price of $285,000. In the first quarter of 2010, 419 condos sold with a total dollar volume of $152,200,000 and a median sales price of $295,000. Compared to last year, unit sales decreased 9.7% and median price declined 3.4%, however, the average sales price rose 8.3%.

Seattle condo market charts:




Distressed condo properties, short sales and bank-owned, accounted for 25.5% of the closed unit sales volume in March 2010. Currently, distressed condo properties represent 23% of the available condo inventory.

© The Seattle Condo Blog

February took an unexpected turn as the median Seattle condo selling price rose 7.66% for the month to $312,750…a 14-month high.

That’s an increased median selling price, not necessarily an increase in value. Overall, I believe condo values remain depressed and will continue to trend downwards. What we’re seeing is a shifting of the median point resulting from a turnaround of the high-end market and fewer lower-valued condo sales.

Through parts of 2009 and the first half of 2010, the first-time home buyer’s tax credit weighted Seattle condo unit sales towards the lower pricing points. At the same time, many high-end buyers shied away from investing in the gluttonous luxury condominium market. Now we’re seeing a reversal. Last month, the number of unit sales priced under $300,000 dropped 15.4% while the number of unit sales priced over $500,000 jumped 92.9% and $1 million-plus sales tripled compared to the same period last year. Granted, that’s just one month’s figures, but the trend has been holding for some time now.

As expected, the number of pending transactions and closed sales lagged behind last year’s volume, down 21.4% and 5.2% respectively compared to February 2010. Without sounding like a broken record, the April 2010 deadline for the tax credit drove higher than normal sales volume last spring. Compared to January, the number of pending and closed transactions also dipped.

There were 1,100 active listings in the MLS last month, which is increasing every month. However, that was well under the 1,306 condo listings last February. The decrease may be attributable to potential sellers holding out for the market to rebound or that are so exasperated they are waiting for the property to foreclosure rather than try to sell short. Nonetheless, the inventory supply rate remains high at 10-months of supply based on closed sales. The pending-based method suggests a more reasonable 6.7-month rate. However, given that most pending short sale transactions fail to close, it’s a less reliable measurement.

In light of frequent news reports about the depressed housing market and economy, condo sales activity have not fluctuated that significantly over the past six months. The seasonal change is also beginning to bring buyers out. Are you one? If not, what factors are influencing your decision?

On a side note, I did want to mention the Mortgage Credit Certificate tax credit. Not many first-time home buyers are aware of it as there are some limitations and qualification requirements, but it is potentially worth a few thousand dollars annually.

Belltown experienced a one-month bounce with a 31.3% jump in median price and more sales and closings compared to last a year ago. Prices in Northeast and West Seattle areas also reflected higher median selling prices, while the condo sales and prices in the Capitol Hill area lagged.

© The Seattle Condo Blog

Seattle’s January citywide $291,500 median condo price reflected a decrease of 7.17% compared to the same period last year, but improved 16.1% over December. However, last January’s median price of $314,000 was the peak over a 24-month period…for the most part median prices hovered between $275,000 and $300,000.

As expected, sales activity picked up with pendings increasing 42.2% to 175 transactions over the prior month (and a 5-month high). Though, that was still 6.9% fewer than last January. And, for the next few months we will not match 2010′s unit sales volume; the April 30th tax credit deadline generated a huge surge last year. Without the external boost this year, we’ll see steep declines in pendings throughout Spring, compared to 2010.

The 113 closed condo sales in January reflected a year-over-year decline of 9.6% and a 5.8% dip from December. Like pendings, the next 4-5 months will exhibit fewer closed sales compared to last year.

The number of condos listed for sale last month increased 5.1% above December to 1,041 units, which was expected, though it was far less than last Janary. Active condo listings will continue to rise from this point on and will peak during Summer.

The Seattle condo inventory supply rate dipped to 5.9 months based on pendings and rose to 9.2 months based on closed sales. Either method continues to suggest a buyers market environment.

Going forward, Seattle’s condo market faces challenges, especially through the first half of the year. The lack of artificial stimulus and an increasing foreclosure rate will place greater pressure on sellers to adjust to the ever changing market place. On the other hand, lower prices, perceived value and sustained mortgage interest rates may open the door for more future homeowners. I do think we’ll see plateauing of both median prices and unit sales activity, though at a lower threshold than last year.

© The Seattle Condo Blog

December is the slowest month of the year in the real estate cycle, so we’d expect figures to be depressed and last month’s Seattle condo market stats didn’t disappoint.

The citywide Seattle median condo price dipped 3.46% to $251,000 compared to December of last year. West Seattle was the only market area that showed an improvement, though only slightly with just a 0.5% increase in median value. Northwest Seattle (north of ship canal, west of I-5) showed the largest one-year decline, down 16.4%.

Pending transactions (properties under contract) dropped 17.5% while closings dipped 13.7%, compared to the same period last year. Yet all was not gloomy…the number of closings increased 22.4% between November and December.

The number of active listings fell 1.8% to 990 units, the fewest number of available condo units for sale since February 2007. Seasonal fluctuation, increase in rentals, sellers holding out for a turnaround and the rise in foreclosures likely account for the drop in listings.

The Seattle condo inventory supply rate remained unchanged based on the number of pending transactions, but reduced 4 months to 8.3 months of supply based on closed units. Both methods reach the same conclusion, however, that Seattle remains a buyer’s market overall. Though, conditions will vary by neighborhood and price level.

While Seattle’s condo market will continue to struggle for some time to come, 2011 portends to be a more active market than this past year. Mortgage interest rates remain at historically low levels, but are expected to rise, which will may persuade buyers off the fence. New construction inventory will constrict as existing developments continue to sell off their remaining units along with the possibility of more condo auctions.

Coming out of a fairly disastrous October, November’s Seattle condo market stats look a little better. The citywide Seattle median condo price was $263,500, an improvement over October by 5.4%, yet down 3.13% compared last November.

The number of closed sales in November dropped rather significantly to just 98 units throughout Seattle. That’s a 49.2% year-over-year drop and and a 21% dip from the prior month. Though, November 2009 closings were artificially high due to the October 31st tax credit contract deadline last year.

On the other hand, the number of pending transactions (condos going under contract) remained stable…151 pending sales compared to 153 last November. That also reflected a one-month improvement of 11.9% in Seattle condo sales. Hopefully, we can carry that momentum to finish out the year.

As seasonally expected, the number of active listings dipped to 1,197 units and will continue to decline until January.

The increase in sales last month, combined with the reduced number of listings, resulted in a more favorable inventory supply rate of 7.9 months, based on pending transactions. However, calculated with closed units, the Seattle condo inventory supply rate jumped to 12.2 months. Two very different numbers, though I’m more inclined to agree with the closed unit method. However, this is a citywide rate and actual market conditions will vary by neighborhood.

We should expect a slight dip in values with reduced inventory and fewer sales and closings to round out 2010.

Not too surprisingly, Seattle’s median condo price dropped last month to $250,000, a 16.67% year-over-year decline and a 15.3% dip from September. There was a bump in last October’s median price brought about by a rash of sales in order to meet the November tax credit deadline. That, combined with lingering buyer apprehension, resulted in a poor condo market performance last month.

The number of Pending and Closed Sales transactions took another hit in October. Compared to the same period last year, Pendings and Closed Sales they were down 50.4% and 32.6%, respectively. Again, a factor was the November 2009 tax credit deadline, though uncertainty about the economy contributed to buyers weariness.

The number of active condo listings declined to 1,349 units in October, a 5.7% decline from September and just 0.9% more than last October. The reduction is mostly attributable to the cyclical end of the year slowdown.

Although, active listings reduced, the citywide Seattle condo inventory supply remained high with a 10-month supply rate. That is, if no new listings come on the market, it will take 10 months to exhaust the supply at the current sales velocity. This represents a firm buyers market environment, overall. Though, market conditions will vary by neighborhood (location) and price point. When factoring in unlisted developer units (e.g. Olive 8, Escala, Enso) and shadow inventory, the true supply rate is much higher…more than 14-months.

It’ll be a long winter for the Seattle condo market, which will have a way to go before turning around. Not pleasant news for condo owners and sellers, but it could be an opportunity for qualified buyers given the abundant inventory, volatile prices and continued low-interest rates. Condos aren’t for everyone so be sure to discuss the benefits, disadvantages and risks of condo-ownership with your agent.

I added a new graph per readers suggestion, comparing the median and average citywide sold prices, though average is not a great metric; a single transaction such as the $5.9 million sale at Escala in July and the $7.2 million sale at the Four Seasons in October skewed the average sales price. Excluding the $7.2 million sale in October reduces the average sales price from from $403,182 to $347,939. Condo sales have been relatively consistent with 60-64% of sales priced under $350,000.






Breakdown of Seattle October 2010 sold condo units:

Source: NWMLS. Though some figures were compiled independently and were not published by the NWMLS.

September’s NWMLS figures were a mixed bag for Seattle’s condo market. Overall, market values held their own, though sales plummeted.

Seattle’s citywide median condo price remained unchanged from August at $297,000. However, that was a significant one year increase of 14.56% over last September. That last time we experienced a double-digit year-over-year median price increase was back in October 2007, just when the market started to crash. Keep in mind, results varies by neighborhood and price points. With the exception of the Downtown/Belltown and Capitol Hill areas, every neighborhood realized declining values.

As we head into Fall the number of active listings will diminish, which we saw in September with a one-month reduction of 4.1%. Compared to last year, however, there were 5.8% more listings. Listed short sales and bank-owned properties (REO) accounted for 1 in every 5 condo units for sale.

The most striking stat was the huge drop in the number of sales (pending transactions), down 40.2% from last September and a 19.8% one-month decline from August. The number of closed transactions dipped as well…down 23.8% year-over-year and 7.7% month-over-month.

However, that was to be expected to some degree. Condo sales last autumn were spurred by the original November 2009 tax credit deadline, which generated a rush of sales in September and October of last year.

The higher number of sales last year kept the inventory supply rate low as well. Without the tax credit incentive this year, along with economic uncertainly and buyer weariness, the inventory supply rate rose to 9.5 months, even though the number of listings have been declining since June. As a result, Seattle remains ensconced in a buyers market.

Going forward, expect condo sales to slow its pace further, though I think we should see values hold their own (citywide median).

The August condo market results from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service were pleasantly surprising with the median Seattle condo value rising to $297,000; a year-over-year increase of 5.97% and a one-month increase of 2.4% over July.

The number of available properties declined 3.9% from July to 1,492 units, though that was still 6.9% more than August of last year. So, there’s still a good number of properties available.

Pending transaction stats have been improving over the past several months with August’s year-over-year pending activity down just 6%, which is great when compared to the -40.8% in May, -30% in June and -20.3% in July (YOY). Further, the number of pending transactions increased 10.6% over July.

However, that trend won’t continue. For the remainder of the year, expect to see the year-over-year figures for pendings to come in well below last year’s activity level, which reflected increased sales volume resulting from rush to meet the November 2009 tax credit deadline.

The number of closed sales dropped 10% compared to last August and was down 2% from July’s closings. Like pendings, there will be fewer closed sales going forward compared to last Fall.

The inventory supply rate dropped to 8 months based on pending, which is good, yet remained at over 10 months based on closed sales. This means we’re still in a relatively stable buyers market, which we’re likely to continue in for the foreseeable future.