The Seattle Condo Blog | Seattle Condos and Lofts

Overall, 2011 was a good year for the Seattle condominium market. Although sale prices fluctuated, unit sales activity was brisk even without a tax credit inducement or an auction to boost sales this past year.

On the new construction front, 2011 brought good tidings to developers, marketers and banks. Several developments sold out including the Gallery in Belltown, Enso in South Lake Union, Trace North and Trace Lofts on Capitol Hill. Other buildings are close to selling out, surpassing the 75% sold mark – 1521 Second, Hjarta, Marselle, 1111 E Pike and the Daneille – with Olive 8 not far behind. Escala reached the 50% milestone gaining Fannie Mae approval status, while on the Eastside, Bellevue Towers closed 144 units last year.

On the resale side, fewer owners took to selling last year, many perhaps, taking advantage of the hot rental market or waiting it out for a recovery before attempting to sell. The available listed inventory supply dropped approximately 30% from 2010 levels, which resulted in quite a few multiple offer situations…something we haven’t seen in a while.

Buyers, who may have been encouraged by the job outlook in the Seattle area (e.g. tech and manufacturing sectors), historic low mortgage interest rates and declining prices, kept Seattle’s condo market rolling along.

2011 By The Numbers

Condo unit sales remained relatively even with 2010 with just 43 fewer units, 1,783 to 1,740, or a decrease of 2.4%. The largest dip was in South Seattle with -14.0%. West Seattle unit sales decreased 11.4%, Capitol Hill was down 9.3% and Northeast Seattle had 5.4% fewer sales.

One the other hand, several areas saw increased unit sales over 2010 – Queen Anne & Magnolia (+7.8%), downtown/Belltown (+4.1%) and Northwest Seattle (+0.7%) – neighborhoods with a high density of condominiums.

Buyers bought bigger and cheaper in 2011. The citywide median condo sales price declined 11.2% to $253,000. Bucking that trend were downtown/Belltown and West Seattle, which saw median sale prices increase 4.7% and 0.8%, respectively for the year. The total aggregate dollar value of condos sold in Seattle dropped 8.2% to $596,022,458.

The average condo unit that sold in 2010 was a one-bedroom at 946 square feet. In 2011, the average unit sold was a 991 square foot two-bedroom. Buyers got more for less.

For sellers, besides seeing sale prices fall, it also took much longer to sell a condo in Seattle last year. The average cumulative days on market rose 12.4% to 136 days. Pricing, property condition, location and whether or not it was a distressed property greatly influenced the time it took to sell a property.

Distressed properties currently account for 29.0% of the available condos for sale. Of that, short sales (pre-foreclosure) make up 9.9% and bank-owned (foreclosed) make up 19.1% of Seattle’s condominium inventory.

The sold condo figures last year reflected a similar overall split between distressed and equity properties but with bank-owned and short sales switching places. Equity sales accounted for 70.9% of the condos sold in 2011, while 18.9% were bank-owned and 10.2% were successful short sales. The numbers bear out the fact that short sales, which make up 1 in 5 properties on the market only account for 1 in 10 closed sales, do not have the same appeal as equity or bank-owned properties and have a high purchase failure rate.

Moving ahead through 2012…personally, I think we’ll see more of the same this year. I expect sales to remain brisk with continued pressure on values and further reduction of inventory. Even though supply will shrink I’m not betting that prices will stabilize or recover citywide, not with the significant number of distressed owners and the shadow inventory. However, it is not inconceivable that prices could improve in certain neighborhoods or price tiers.

Source: NWMLS database. Some figures were compiled independently and were not published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
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© Seattle Condos And Lofts

Seattle’s condo market experienced more of the same in December…increased unit sales volume and lower selling prices. The median sold condo price in December 2011 slid 2.75% from November to $234,000, which also reflected a year-over-year dip of 6.77%, the slimmest in 7 months.

The number of pending transactions (properties going under contract) seasonally declined 11.4% from the prior month to 163 units; however, pendings sales reflected a 32.5% increase over last December. The number of closed condominium purchases improved 15.8% to 139 units compared to December of last year, which continued to reflect the robust sales activity we’ve experienced during the second half of 2011. Favorable condo prices and mortgage interest rates kept the market rolling along.

King County results didn’t fare as well as Seattle. The county’s median condo sales price was $185,000 in December reflecting a year-over-year median price drop of -17.78%. Seattle accounts for approximately 35% of the county’s condo sales volume.

Since peaking in June, the number of active listings for sale reduced significantly last month. Available Seattle condo units for sale were down 30.4% to 689 properties compared to last December. However, listings always drop at year-end and we’ll see it creep up shortly.

The low number of units available, combined with strong sales volume, helped Seattle’s condo inventory supply rate reduce to the lowest level in over 4 years. Based on pending sales volume, the supply rate dropped to 4.2 months while the closed sales volume method reduced to a 4.9 month supply.

Essentially, at the current rate of sales, it would take 4.2 months to sell the existing inventory (assuming there are no new listings). This is a common measurement to determine the present housing market evironment. A 4.2 month supply rate suggests Seattle’s condo market is exhibiting a neutral-to-slight seller’s market. King County also has a 4.2 month condo supply rate. As a comparison, single-family homes in Seattle have a tighter 2.7 month supply rate.

Low inventory with strong demand would indicate movement towards a seller’s market and rising prices. Unfortunately, for condo sellers, the latter part of the equation isn’t holding true…increased prices. The high number of distressed properties currently available along with the anticipation of more foreclosures in 2012-2013 is keeping pressure on condo prices. Fortunately, for Seattle condo buyers 2012 will continue to provide opportunities for homeownership.

Source: NWMLS. Some figures were not compiled or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
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© 2012 Seattle Condos And Lofts

Despite the year-over-year median sales price declining for another month, November was actually a good month for Seattle’s condo market – robust sales, shrinking inventory and appealing condo values.

Compared to last November, the median sales price dipped 8.92%. On the surface, that’s not good (unless you’re a buyer), however, it was the smallest YOY decline in six months and the $240,000 median sales price reflected a one-month increase of 6.9%.

The number of properties going under contract dipped from the prior month, which is normal given the seasonal slow down in November and December. Compared to last November, though, the number of pending transactions increased 21.9%. Presently, distressed properties account for nearly 57% of the pendings (41.6% short sales and 15.2% bank-owned).

The one figure that stood out was the number of closed sales, which increased an amazing 43.9% over November of last year. That’s a significant improvement and shows buyers confidence in Seattle’s condo market…or at least they’re seeing value in the current price levels. Of the closings last month, 12% were short sales, 24% were bank-owned and 64% were equity sales.

King County condo sales were even more impressive with a 69.9% increase of closed condo sales over November 2010.

Seattle’s condo inventory continued to constrict with just 824 condo units listed in the NWMLS for sale in November, a 68-month low. That reflected a one-year decline of 31.2% and a one-month reduction of 9.5%. Granted, we expect inventory to drop during the holiday season. However, the current inventory level is reminiscent of late 2006, just as the construction boom took off. While that may still seem high to some, to provide perspective, at the height of the glut there were around 1,900 units available.

The improved sales volume, combined with shrinking inventory, kept the citywide inventory supply rate (absorption rate) in a neutral, or balanced, market environment. That is, neither a seller’s market nor a buyer’s market. The supply rate varies by neighborhood and price point. Presently, inventory for in-city condos under $200,000 is fairly tight, while higher-price points and outlying neighborhoods tend to have excess inventory.

If inventory continues to drop, which it likely will through 2012 and 2013 even with the shadow inventory, we may return to pre-2006 levels by 2013…back to a seller’s market based on the current rate of sales and lack of any new projects in the pipeline.

Source: NWMLS. Some figures were not compiled or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

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© Seattle Condos And Lofts

In October, Seattle’s condo market reflected another month of strong sales velocity, constricting inventory and falling condo prices.

The median Seattle condo sales price in October fell to $226,000, a 9.6% drop from last October and a one-month slide of 5.8%. That’s the lowest point the median has been since March 2004…prior to the construction boom. Only West Seattle realized an increase in median price, up 12.8% over last year.

Whether that’s good or grim depends on whether you’re a condo owner or a buyer. We tend to think of declining home values as negative, and if you own a condo, it can be financially devastating. Yet, for those seeking homeownership, the current marketplace offers opportunity.

Seattle condo sales improved with the number of properties going under contract rising 56.3% over last October to 211 units, and a one-month gain of 4.5% over September. Pending transactions increased citywide with North Seattle (north of the ship canal) and West Seattle more than doubling the number of pendings in October.

The 137 closed condo transactions reflected a 10.5% increase from last October and were unchanged from September. With the exception of Capitol Hill, the number of closed sales increased citywide. Queen Anne / Magnolia reflected the biggest jump increasing 75% year-over-year.

The number of available Seattle condos for sale reduced significantly, down 32.5% to 911 units compared to the same period last year. That’s the fewest since February 2007. Active listings will continue to decline through the end of the year.

Seattle’s condominium inventory supply rate – a measure of how long the current inventory will take to sell based on recently sales volume – dropped to an 18-month low of 4.3 months based on pending transactions. The rate based on closed transactions also improved to 6.6 months.

The inventory supply rate suggests Seattle is in a neutral market, neither a buyer’s nor seller’s market. However, that’s not a completely accurate picture as Seattle’s real estate market is dependent on locality and price point. For example, Northwest Seattle and Belltown reflect a seller’s-to-neutral market while West Seattle is a buyer’s market. Properties under $250,000 represented 54% of closed sales last month but only 45% of the available inventory creating scarcity and competition among lower priced condos.

Through October 31, 2011 there were 1,459 closed condo sales in Seattle with a total dollar volume of $513,065,628 and a median sales price of $257,000, per recorded NWMLS sales (does not include foreclosure, auction and private sales). During the same period in 2010 there were 1,563 closed sales with a total dollar volume of $569,856,374 and a median sales price of $286,000. Through the first 10-months the citywide median sales price is off by 10.1% from the same period last year.

Source: NWMLS. Some statistics were independently calculated using NWMLS data.

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Copyright Seattle Condos and Lofts

September’s Seattle condo market results continued the trend we’ve seen throughout the year – consistent sales volume from falling prices and low mortgage interest rates.

The median Seattle condo sales price took a big hit in September, dropping to $240,000, a decline of 19.19% compared the same period last year and 2.4% from August..the lowest point since October 2004. In spite of that, median condo prices rose in two areas last month – Queen Anne and Northeast Seattle. Although the year-over-year figures have shown considerable decline, citywide median prices have remained relatively flat over the past five months.

Seattle condo sales continued to do well reflected by a 34.7% year-over-year increase in pending transactions (202). Lower condo prices and historic low interest rates have created opportunities for home buyers and investors. Currently, 15% of the condos for sale in Seattle are priced less than $150,000 and 40 units are priced under $100,000.

The number of closed sales (137) reflected a 20.3% one-month drop, but still outpaced last September closings by 4.6%.

The number of active condo listings for sale continued to reduce, down to 983 properties last month, inching the market back to pre-boom inventory levels.

With fewer available condos and a stable sales volume, the Seattle condo inventory supply rate (absorption rate) dipped slightly to 4.9 months based on pendings, though it increased to 7.2 months based on closed sales. Both methods indicate the city continues to reflect neutral/balanced market conditions, presently.

Heading into fall, the seasonal market slow down will reflect fewer listings, reduced sales and likely lower prices, still. One thing I noticed in the past month is the increasing number of Fannie Mae foreclosed condos coming on the market. This will place even greater pressure on Seattle condo values.

If there’s anything to be said about the Seattle condo market this year, is that it’s been rather consistent. The median price has been consistently below 2010 levels, inventory remains around the 1,100 mark and sales continue to improve over last year.

The citywide condo median sales price dropped by its largest margin this year, down 17.17% to $246,000 compared to the same period in 2010. That also reflected a one-month slide of 3.5%. Capitol Hill saw the greatest decline (-25%), while West Seattle was the only area where the median sales price increased (+2.5).

Even though there’s been considerable fluctuation from 2010 levels, median Seattle condo prices have actually been fairly stable this year. Over the past four months, the median sales price has settled around the $250,000 mark.

Sales have been steady this year, although at a slower velocity than we saw in the spring. The number of pending transactions under contract last month increased 11.2% over last year, the 4th consecutive month of year-over-year improvement. The increased sales in August were primarily in Queen Anne / Magnolia and NE Seattle. If the trend holds, the market should outpace 2010 sales for the remainder of the year.

The number of closed sales in August rose 21.1% over last August and rebounded 26.5% over the prior month. Year-to-date, the number of closed condo sales is off by 116 units compared to the same period in 2010. That’s not bad considering 2011 sales have been market driven rather than incentivized by tax credits.

The number of active condo listings has been consistent thoughout the year, approximately within 50 units either side of 1,100 and well below 2010 levels. There were 32.9% fewer condominiums listed for sale in August compared to last year. We’re heading back down to pre-boom levels and are not likely to see the excess inventory that we experienced between 2007 and 2010 anytime soon given the market and new construction environment.

The reduced number of listings, combined with a steady rate of sales, has kept the Seattle condo inventory supply rate, or absorption rate, within balanced market parameters. Citywide, the absorption rate has dipped to 5 and 6.1 months of supply based on pending and closed sales, respectively.

The areas with the lowest condo supply rates are SE Seattle with 3.6 months of supply and downtown / Belltown with 4.6 months.

Currently, distressed condos comprise 24.1% of the inventory and 26% of the sales last month. What’s interesting, however, is the difference in sales between bank-owned (REO) properties and short sales. Short sales make up 16% of the inventory but only 0.9% of closed sales, where REO make up 8.1% of the inventory yet account for 16.8% of sales.

That’s not completely surprising, though, considering most short sales have a low success rate while buying an REO property isn’t very different from regular sales. Eventually, the market will absorb those units as short sales foreclose and end up as REOs. That’ll continue to put downward pressure on prices and will likely keep the market in a balanced/buyer’s market.

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© Seattle Condos and Lofts

The Absorption Rate (inventory supply) is a metric indicating the number of months that the current inventory will take to sell based on demand (sales) if no new listings come on the market. This is the barometer used to determine market condition – buyers market, sellers market, or a balanced market.

It’s calculated by dividing inventory by the monthly sales volume. For the figures below I used the average monthly sales (closings) for the year and am expressing the absorption rate in months of supply.

Absorption Rate by Price Tier

With the exception of high-end properties, the Seattle condo absorption rates have been fairly consistent across the price spectrum, within a 6-8 month supply based on closed sales.

The citywide rate was 7.5…no surprise, it’s still a buyer’s market. In comparison, Seattle’s single family market reflects a balanced to slight seller’s market with a 3.6 month absorption rate.

Surprisingly, the lower price tiers had high absorption rates, which is a somewhat counterintuitive considering that the majority of condo sales were priced under $300,000. Though, short sale and bank-owned properties account for nearly 38% of the inventory under $300,000, and short sales have a high non-closure rate.

Sales of $1 million-plus condos are up significantly compared to 2010, but there is still considerable inventory available. However, we’d expect they would take longer to sell so it’s not unreasonable for $1 million-plus properties to have a higher absorption rate.

Absorption Rate by Area

As with the pricing tiers, the Seattle condo absorption rate also varies by neighborhood areas.

The Seattle core neighborhoods (downtown, Belltown, Capitol Hill and Queen Anne) have the most inventory, approximately 59% of the city’s available condos. They also currently have the lowest absorption rates, reflecting a balanced to slight buyer’s market environment. Convenient access to work, entertainment and recreational amenities, and neighborhood businesses contribute to their desirability.

Moving out from the city core, the condo supply increases with the South and West Seattle areas exhibiting a strong buyer’s market climate.

Source: Data is from the NWMLS but calculated independently by SeattleCondosAndLofts.com. Note, the absorption rate was calculated using the number of NWMLS listed condos on August 25th, 2011 and is subject to change over time.

July was a challenging month for Seattle’s condo market with a downward pressure on prices despite improved sales.

The median citywide sales price of $255,000 reflected a 12.07% decline compared to last July, but increased 3.7% over June. While most neighborhoods saw double-digit decreases, the downtown / Belltown area fared the best with only a 0.7% dip, less than a percent. Median sale prices over the past few months have been in line with 2005 price levels.

Sales velocity improved from a year ago with the number of pending transactions up 23.1%. The downtown / Belltown area realized a significant increase in condo sales in July, nearly doubling the number of properties going under contract from last year (+48.7%). The results were diverse with sales coming from across a variety of price levels and condominium buildings.

Closed sales, on the other hand, fell 6.2% compared to last July. The month-over-month result was more significant with closings dipping 24.9%. The decrease may be attributable to the drop in pending transactions in June (the lag between pendings and closings) as well as short sale failures.

The number of active listings continued to hover around the 1,100 mark. That’s approximately 30% fewer available listings for sale compared to the same period last year. At this rate and contemplating seasonal factors, we may hit pre-construction boom inventory levels by Fall.

The Seattle condo inventory supply rate dipped slightly to 5.2 months based on pending transactions but rose to 7.9 months based on the closed sales method. Overall, the Seattle condo market reflects a neutral to buyer’s market environment, though some neighborhoods like Belltown exhibit neutral to seller’s market conditions.

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© Seattle Condos And Lofts

King5 News recently ran a report on Seattle’s declining new construction condo inventory.

Last year there were 550 new construction condos available on the market. This year there are only 300. That’s about a 40 percent absorbtion rate.

Not only have no new condo buildings sprouted up in Seattle since 2007, but there are no new condo construction or development projects currently in the works either.

I’m assuming the 2007 date is the last construction start since the the last downtown area condo development (excluding Volta) was delivered in 2009.

Overall, Seattle’s available for-sale condo inventory has decreased approximately 30% from last year’s level.

Seattle’s soft condo prices contributed to strong condo sales activity in June.

The $246,000 citywide median condo sales price in June reflected a 13.68% year-over-year drop and a slight one-month decline of 1.5%. Prices slid in all Seattle MLS areas except for West Seattle, which improved 15.7%. The attractive, lower prices continued to stimulate sales of entry-level condominiums. In June, 50.8% of all condos sold in Seattle were priced below $250,000 compared to 37.9% last year. The higher number of lower price condos sales, along with depressed values, shifted the median sales price point downward compared to the same period last year.

Overall, June’s condo sales volume was healthy with a 31.1% year-over-year increase in the number of pending transactions (condos going under contract). Though, anything compared to the stalled sales following the expiration of the tax credit last year would look good. The number of pending transactions also reflected a one-month dip of 9.8%. Nevertheless, it was one of the better months for condo sales over the past 13-months.

The number of closed condo sales continued to trend upward with a one-month increase of 2.8%. Compared to a year ago, closings were down 14.2%. However, the closing deadline for the tax credit was last June, which resulted in a higher than normal closing volume. Thus, the 30 unit difference was remarkable given there were no incentives to propel sales this year…the market drove sales on its own.

The number of active condo listings continued to remain flat this year, and was down 27.9% compared to June of last year. For many condo owners, the hot rental market offers a compelling alternative to selling at depressed prices.

Seattle’s condo inventory supply rate was moderate in June, indicating a relatively normal market environment. While the lower supply tend to benefit sellers, the lower values definitely favor buyers in this market. Anecdotally, our first-time home buyers are starting to find the number of choices scarce, particularly in the lower price ranges, and lately, are experiencing competition from other buyers.

© Seattle Condos and Loft