The citywide median sales price for the first quarter 2012 slid 23.5% to $215,000 compared to the same period last year and 8.5% from the prior quarter.

- South and Northeast Seattle reflected highest increase in closed sales, doubling the number of units sold.

- Queen Anne / Magnolia and the downtown area realized fewer sales in the quarter compared to last year.

- South Seattle was the only area in the city that exhibited improvement in the median sales price, while Queen Anne / Magnolia had the largest decline.

However, the market has changed rather significantly over the past 6-8 weeks and the initial numbers for April are showing a considerable improvement over the first quarter figures shown here.

Source: NWMLS. All figures were independently compiled by SeattleCondosAndLofts.com and were not published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

On the new construction front, 2011 brought good tidings to developers, marketers and banks. Several developments sold out including the Gallery in Belltown, Enso in South Lake Union, Trace North and Trace Lofts on Capitol Hill. Other buildings are close to selling out, surpassing the 75% sold mark – 1521 Second, Hjarta, Marselle, 1111 E Pike and the Daneille – with Olive 8 not far behind. Escala reached the 50% milestone gaining Fannie Mae approval status, while on the Eastside, Bellevue Towers closed 144 units last year.

On the resale side, fewer owners took to selling last year, many perhaps, taking advantage of the hot rental market or waiting it out for a recovery before attempting to sell. The available listed inventory supply dropped approximately 30% from 2010 levels, which resulted in quite a few multiple offer situations…something we haven’t seen in a while.

Buyers, who may have been encouraged by the job outlook in the Seattle area (e.g. tech and manufacturing sectors), historic low mortgage interest rates and declining prices, kept Seattle’s condo market rolling along.

2011 By The Numbers

Condo unit sales remained relatively even with 2010 with just 43 fewer units, 1,783 to 1,740, or a decrease of 2.4%. The largest dip was in South Seattle with -14.0%. West Seattle unit sales decreased 11.4%, Capitol Hill was down 9.3% and Northeast Seattle had 5.4% fewer sales.

One the other hand, several areas saw increased unit sales over 2010 – Queen Anne & Magnolia (+7.8%), downtown/Belltown (+4.1%) and Northwest Seattle (+0.7%) – neighborhoods with a high density of condominiums.

Buyers bought bigger and cheaper in 2011. The citywide median condo sales price declined 11.5% to $252,000. Bucking that trend were downtown/Belltown and West Seattle, which saw median sale prices increase 4.7% and 0.8%, respectively for the year. The total aggregate dollar value of condos sold in Seattle dropped 8.2% to $596,022,458.

The average condo unit that sold in 2010 was a one-bedroom at 946 square feet. In 2011, the average unit sold was a 991 square foot two-bedroom. Buyers got more for less.

For sellers, besides seeing sale prices fall, it also took much longer to sell a condo in Seattle last year. The average cumulative days on market rose 12.4% to 136 days. Pricing, property condition, location and whether or not it was a distressed property greatly influenced the time it took to sell a property.

Distressed properties currently account for 29.0% of the available condos for sale. Of that, short sales (pre-foreclosure) make up 9.9% and bank-owned (foreclosed) make up 19.1% of Seattle’s condominium inventory.

The sold condo figures last year reflected a similar overall split between distressed and equity properties but with bank-owned and short sales switching places. Equity sales accounted for 70.9% of the condos sold in 2011, while 18.9% were bank-owned and 10.2% were successful short sales. The numbers bear out the fact that short sales, which make up 1 in 5 properties on the market only account for 1 in 10 closed sales, do not have the same appeal as equity or bank-owned properties and have a high purchase failure rate.

Moving ahead through 2012…personally, I think we’ll see more of the same this year. I expect sales to remain brisk with continued pressure on values and further reduction of inventory. Even though supply will shrink I’m not betting that prices will stabilize or recover citywide, not with the significant number of distressed owners and the shadow inventory. However, it is not inconceivable that prices could improve in certain neighborhoods or price tiers.

Source: NWMLS database. Some figures were compiled independently and were not published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
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© Seattle Condos And Lofts

Compared to last November, the median sales price dipped 8.92%. On the surface, that’s not good (unless you’re a buyer), however, it was the smallest YOY decline in six months and the $240,000 median sales price reflected a one-month increase of 6.9%.

The number of properties going under contract dipped from the prior month, which is normal given the seasonal slow down in November and December. Compared to last November, though, the number of pending transactions increased 21.9%. Presently, distressed properties account for nearly 57% of the pendings (41.6% short sales and 15.2% bank-owned).

The one figure that stood out was the number of closed sales, which increased an amazing 43.9% over November of last year. That’s a significant improvement and shows buyers confidence in Seattle’s condo market…or at least they’re seeing value in the current price levels. Of the closings last month, 12% were short sales, 24% were bank-owned and 64% were equity sales.

King County condo sales were even more impressive with a 69.9% increase of closed condo sales over November 2010.

Seattle’s condo inventory continued to constrict with just 824 condo units listed in the NWMLS for sale in November, a 68-month low. That reflected a one-year decline of 31.2% and a one-month reduction of 9.5%. Granted, we expect inventory to drop during the holiday season. However, the current inventory level is reminiscent of late 2006, just as the construction boom took off. While that may still seem high to some, to provide perspective, at the height of the glut there were around 1,900 units available.

The improved sales volume, combined with shrinking inventory, kept the citywide inventory supply rate (absorption rate) in a neutral, or balanced, market environment. That is, neither a seller’s market nor a buyer’s market. The supply rate varies by neighborhood and price point. Presently, inventory for in-city condos under $200,000 is fairly tight, while higher-price points and outlying neighborhoods tend to have excess inventory.

If inventory continues to drop, which it likely will through 2012 and 2013 even with the shadow inventory, we may return to pre-2006 levels by 2013…back to a seller’s market based on the current rate of sales and lack of any new projects in the pipeline.

Source: NWMLS. Some figures were not compiled or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

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© Seattle Condos And Lofts

The median Seattle condo sales price in October fell to $226,000, a 9.6% drop from last October and a one-month slide of 5.8%. That’s the lowest point the median has been since March 2004…prior to the construction boom. Only West Seattle realized an increase in median price, up 12.8% over last year.

Whether that’s good or grim depends on whether you’re a condo owner or a buyer. We tend to think of declining home values as negative, and if you own a condo, it can be financially devastating. Yet, for those seeking homeownership, the current marketplace offers opportunity.

Seattle condo sales improved with the number of properties going under contract rising 56.3% over last October to 211 units, and a one-month gain of 4.5% over September. Pending transactions increased citywide with North Seattle (north of the ship canal) and West Seattle more than doubling the number of pendings in October.

The 137 closed condo transactions reflected a 10.5% increase from last October and were unchanged from September. With the exception of Capitol Hill, the number of closed sales increased citywide. Queen Anne / Magnolia reflected the biggest jump increasing 75% year-over-year.

The number of available Seattle condos for sale reduced significantly, down 32.5% to 911 units compared to the same period last year. That’s the fewest since February 2007. Active listings will continue to decline through the end of the year.

Seattle’s condominium inventory supply rate – a measure of how long the current inventory will take to sell based on recently sales volume – dropped to an 18-month low of 4.3 months based on pending transactions. The rate based on closed transactions also improved to 6.6 months.

The inventory supply rate suggests Seattle is in a neutral market, neither a buyer’s nor seller’s market. However, that’s not a completely accurate picture as Seattle’s real estate market is dependent on locality and price point. For example, Northwest Seattle and Belltown reflect a seller’s-to-neutral market while West Seattle is a buyer’s market. Properties under $250,000 represented 54% of closed sales last month but only 45% of the available inventory creating scarcity and competition among lower priced condos.

Through October 31, 2011 there were 1,459 closed condo sales in Seattle with a total dollar volume of $513,065,628 and a median sales price of $257,000, per recorded NWMLS sales (does not include foreclosure, auction and private sales). During the same period in 2010 there were 1,563 closed sales with a total dollar volume of $569,856,374 and a median sales price of $286,000. Through the first 10-months the citywide median sales price is off by 10.1% from the same period last year.

Source: NWMLS. Some statistics were independently calculated using NWMLS data.

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Copyright Seattle Condos and Lofts

The median Seattle condo sales price took a big hit in September, dropping to $240,000, a decline of 19.19% compared the same period last year and 2.4% from August..the lowest point since October 2004. In spite of that, median condo prices rose in two areas last month – Queen Anne and Northeast Seattle. Although the year-over-year figures have shown considerable decline, citywide median prices have remained relatively flat over the past five months.

Seattle condo sales continued to do well reflected by a 34.7% year-over-year increase in pending transactions (202). Lower condo prices and historic low interest rates have created opportunities for home buyers and investors. Currently, 15% of the condos for sale in Seattle are priced less than $150,000 and 40 units are priced under $100,000.

The number of closed sales (137) reflected a 20.3% one-month drop, but still outpaced last September closings by 4.6%.

The number of active condo listings for sale continued to reduce, down to 983 properties last month, inching the market back to pre-boom inventory levels.

With fewer available condos and a stable sales volume, the Seattle condo inventory supply rate (absorption rate) dipped slightly to 4.9 months based on pendings, though it increased to 7.2 months based on closed sales. Both methods indicate the city continues to reflect neutral/balanced market conditions, presently.

Heading into fall, the seasonal market slow down will reflect fewer listings, reduced sales and likely lower prices, still. One thing I noticed in the past month is the increasing number of Fannie Mae foreclosed condos coming on the market. This will place even greater pressure on Seattle condo values.

The citywide condo median sales price dropped by its largest margin this year, down 17.17% to $246,000 compared to the same period in 2010. That also reflected a one-month slide of 3.5%. Capitol Hill saw the greatest decline (-25%), while West Seattle was the only area where the median sales price increased (+2.5).

Even though there’s been considerable fluctuation from 2010 levels, median Seattle condo prices have actually been fairly stable this year. Over the past four months, the median sales price has settled around the $250,000 mark.

Sales have been steady this year, although at a slower velocity than we saw in the spring. The number of pending transactions under contract last month increased 11.2% over last year, the 4th consecutive month of year-over-year improvement. The increased sales in August were primarily in Queen Anne / Magnolia and NE Seattle. If the trend holds, the market should outpace 2010 sales for the remainder of the year.

The number of closed sales in August rose 21.1% over last August and rebounded 26.5% over the prior month. Year-to-date, the number of closed condo sales is off by 116 units compared to the same period in 2010. That’s not bad considering 2011 sales have been market driven rather than incentivized by tax credits.

The number of active condo listings has been consistent thoughout the year, approximately within 50 units either side of 1,100 and well below 2010 levels. There were 32.9% fewer condominiums listed for sale in August compared to last year. We’re heading back down to pre-boom levels and are not likely to see the excess inventory that we experienced between 2007 and 2010 anytime soon given the market and new construction environment.

The reduced number of listings, combined with a steady rate of sales, has kept the Seattle condo inventory supply rate, or absorption rate, within balanced market parameters. Citywide, the absorption rate has dipped to 5 and 6.1 months of supply based on pending and closed sales, respectively.

The areas with the lowest condo supply rates are SE Seattle with 3.6 months of supply and downtown / Belltown with 4.6 months.

Currently, distressed condos comprise 24.1% of the inventory and 26% of the sales last month. What’s interesting, however, is the difference in sales between bank-owned (REO) properties and short sales. Short sales make up 16% of the inventory but only 0.9% of closed sales, where REO make up 8.1% of the inventory yet account for 16.8% of sales.

That’s not completely surprising, though, considering most short sales have a low success rate while buying an REO property isn’t very different from regular sales. Eventually, the market will absorb those units as short sales foreclose and end up as REOs. That’ll continue to put downward pressure on prices and will likely keep the market in a balanced/buyer’s market.

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© Seattle Condos and Lofts

The median citywide sales price of $255,000 reflected a 12.07% decline compared to last July, but increased 3.7% over June. While most neighborhoods saw double-digit decreases, the downtown / Belltown area fared the best with only a 0.7% dip, less than a percent. Median sale prices over the past few months have been in line with 2005 price levels.

Sales velocity improved from a year ago with the number of pending transactions up 23.1%. The downtown / Belltown area realized a significant increase in condo sales in July, nearly doubling the number of properties going under contract from last year (+48.7%). The results were diverse with sales coming from across a variety of price levels and condominium buildings.

Closed sales, on the other hand, fell 6.2% compared to last July. The month-over-month result was more significant with closings dipping 24.9%. The decrease may be attributable to the drop in pending transactions in June (the lag between pendings and closings) as well as short sale failures.

The number of active listings continued to hover around the 1,100 mark. That’s approximately 30% fewer available listings for sale compared to the same period last year. At this rate and contemplating seasonal factors, we may hit pre-construction boom inventory levels by Fall.

The Seattle condo inventory supply rate dipped slightly to 5.2 months based on pending transactions but rose to 7.9 months based on the closed sales method. Overall, the Seattle condo market reflects a neutral to buyer’s market environment, though some neighborhoods like Belltown exhibit neutral to seller’s market conditions.

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© Seattle Condos And Lofts

The citywide median condo price in July checked in at $290,000. That’s a one-month improvement of 1.8% over June and a fairly impressive 7.4% increase over the same period last year. So far this year, 5 of 7 months have shown a year-over-year increase in the citywide median price. And, we’re no longer seeing the wide swings that occurred during the more volatile market place over the past two or so years. That said, though, the results will fluctuate by neighborhood.

The number of active listings actually dipped in July to 1,554 properties…10 units fewer than June. Though, that’s still 10.1% (143 units) more than last July. Inventory levels tends to peak around August, so hopefully we’re seeing the worst of it now.

The inventory supply rate, based on pendings, decreased ever so slightly to 9.2 months of supply, which is still a pretty solid buyers market.

The number of pendings rose 4.9% over June to 169 units, but that was a 20.2% dip from July 2009. The number of closed sales dropped more substantially, down 31.3% from June and 20.8% from July of last year.

Going forward, the market will likely fare better than I’ve been prognosticating as it corrects itself. Although I still remain a bit cautious in my assessment as we haven’t hit bottom yet, I think we’ll continue to see fairly stable citywide condo values over the next few months. Interest rates are expected to remain low, which will help keep the wheels churning. However, we’ll experience slower sales activity as we wind up the year since the 2nd half of 2009 was artificially propped up by the rush to meet the original tax credit deadline last Fall. So, fewer sales but more stable values.

The number of closed sales increased as expected, up 39.8% above the same period last year and 8.2% over April. Though, considering how many pendings there were in April, the 197 closings in May was lower than anticipated. That might have been affected by short sale transactions, which takes longer to close and have a higher failure rate.

Compared to last May, Seattle’s median condo price dipped 6.25% to $285,000, reversing an 3-month year-over-year appreciation trend. However, the median price has been stable, essentially plateauing over the past 4 months.

Inventory continued to rise with 1,548 active listings in May, which reflected a 1.7% increase over April and a 12.3% increase compared to the same period last year. That rise, combined with the drop in pending transactions, resulted in a massive jump in the inventory supply rate to 10.1 months. Add in the unlisted new construction units and we’re closer to 14 months of inventory.

As the graph below shows the inventory rate is quite volatile, though, it’s likely to remain in the seller market range through summer. Inventory is now up to 2008 levels, which may result in further price fluidity and help sustain an active marketplace as buyers have more choices.

As there are two schools of thought on calculating the inventory supply rate – either using the pending transactions or closed sales methods – I’ve updated the graph to include both. The inventory supply rate is calculated by dividing the number of active listings by the number of pendings or closed units. I use the pending transactions method which shows a significant increase. On the other hand, the closed sales method indicates a plateauing trend.

Source: NWMLS. Though some figures were compiled independently and were not published by the NWMLS.

The one month median price did fall 5.5% from March, though going back to 2006, April’s median price has always been lower than March’s, so I’m calling that cyclical.

The number of condos going under contract (pending transactions) increased 65.2% over last April while closed sales jumped 80.2%.

The number of active condo listings continued to rise, up another 11.8% last month to 1,522 units listed in the NWMLS. Fortunately, for now, the strong sales velocity has kept the inventory supply relatively low. The supply rate was down to 4.2 months citywide in April, though in several areas (downtown and North Seattle), the rate dipped into the 3′s…nearly seller market conditions.

Though, much of the increased sales volume over the past few months have been attributable to the federal home buyer tax credits. With the credits having expired on April 30th, combined with rising inventory, we’ll see a shift back to a buyers market.

The rising inventory level is a little alarming. The number of active listings peaked at 1,662 units in May 2008 and the market is presently trending in that direction. Though, whether that’s good or not-so-good news probably depends on whether you’re a seller or a buyer. As a seller, it may portend increased competition and further price volatility; as a buyer it’ll mean more choices and potentially better values. And, many believe the end of the tax credits will force prices downwards. On one hand, that’ll help incentivize further sales, thus absorbing inventory and stabilizing the market. On the other hand, it’ll be on the backs of sellers who, if they had purchased in the past 2-3 years, are likely selling at a loss.

Going forward, we’ll see another month of strong closed sales figures in May due to the lag between when units goes under contract and closing. I’m going to guess over 200 closed sales for May. Pending transactions will drop steeply. There were 365 pending transactions in April, the most in a single month since July 2007, the month before the condo market crashed. We’re not likely to see that volume again for some time to come.

One interesting tidbit is that upper-end condos are moving. Last April, only 7 condos sold were priced over $500,000, this April there were 23. As a percentage of total condo sales, $500,000+ units accounted for 6.9% in April 2009 and 12.6% in April 2010. As Seattle’s excess inventory is primarily in the $500,000+ range, it’s a great sign that they’re selling.

Source: NWMLS. Though some figures were compiled independently and were not published by the NWMLS.